MLS 2011 Eastern Conference Preview

Time for part 2 of my First Annual Half Arsed And Proud Of It MLS Season Predictions, and this time it's the Eastern Conference.  Click here for my Western Conference preview, where Seattle took less than half a game to make a mockery of my optimism for Blaise Nkufo and O'Brian White.  Like how I did it with the West, it's another no research, no googling, gut instinct kind of thing, here we go.

1 New York Red Bulls.  Juan Pablo Angel could be a big loss, but having a full season of Thierry Henry should work out nicely for them.  Not really much competition in the East, so they should sew up first fairly easily, before shockingly and amusingly losing to the wild card Colorado Rapids.

2 Sporting Kansas City.  A new name, almost a new stadium, and Omar Bravo as their new DP.  Things are looking up in KC.  A long road trip could kill their season, but I think they'll do just about well enough to hang on, and then really make up ground in the 2nd half of the season, before making it to the Conference final and losing.

3 D.C United.  Charlie Davies is a great signing and if Andy Najar can repeat or improve upon his showing of last year, they should help restore DC, if not to their former championship winning glories, at least back to respectability and a playoff position.

4 Philadelphia Union.  Faryd Mondragon's a great name, and a decent signing as well.  Carlos Ruiz seems like a bit of a desperate gamble, but things will come together and the Union will get the last wild card spot, where they'll lose to Colorado

5 Chicago Fire.  Lost a few big name players in Cuahtemoc Blanco Brian McBride and Nery Castillo, so will wallow in mediocrity, flirt with the playoffs all season, but not make it.

6 Houston Dynamo.  Houston benefit with the move to the weaker Eastern Conference, but won't really be able to take advantage.  With no big names coming in over the off-season, they'll once again be relying on Brian Ching, and he won't be able to do it on his own.

7 Columbus Crew.  Lost a lot of their best and most experienced players, like Schelotto and Hejduk, and their days of being a contender are over.  They'll actually lose a game to Toronto, but will still finish above them.

8 Toronto FC.  Ah, Toronto.  New management, new hope, no good new players yet though.  If some academy kids/draftees or as yet unknown new signings don't come along and impress, we'll be in trouble.  We're finally on the right track but we're a long way back, 2012 should be better but this year will be long and frustrating, it'll be interesting at least.
9 New England Revolution.  If only because I couldn't bring myself to put Toronto dead last.  If Shalrie Joseph can keep himself out of trouble and out of rehab, they'll maybe do ok, but I think they'll struggle and it may be the end of the Nicol era.

So overall, in one magnificent single table format, your standings will be;

1 Real Salt Lake
2 Seattle Sounders
3 New York Red Bulls
4 LA Galaxy
5 Colorado Rapids
6 FC Dallas
7 Sporting Kansas City
8 DC United
9 Portland Timbers
10 Philadelphia Union
11Chicago Fire
12 San Jose Earthquakes
13 Houston Dynamo
14 Columbus Crew
15 Chivas Usa
16 Toronto FC
17 Vancouver Whitecaps
18 New England Revolution.

Wild cards, Colorado beats Philadelphia, Portland beats Dallas.
Conference semi finals, RSL beats Portland, Seattle beats LA, Colorado beats New York and Kansas City beats DC.
Conference finals, Seattle beats RSL and Colorado beats Kansas City
MLS Cup, Seattle beats Colorado. 

All we need is just a little patience.

So that's the Mickey Mouse cup over and done with, as well as the first two games we've been able to watch and see how things are going with the new regime, so what have we learnt so far, aside from the fact that it's still way too early in preseason to be able to draw any kind of conclusions.

Game 1, a 3-2 defeat against Houston on Thursday night was definitely a mixed bag.  Defensively we looked a little unorganised at times, Houston's first goal in particular saw some bad positional play from triallist Mikael Yourassowsky, though given it was his first game after just joining the club, that's forgiveable.  Dan Gargan didn't look great on Houston's 3rd either which is a bit more worrying for our chances this season.  Gargan seems like a great player to have around in the dressing room, and his versatility means he'll be a valuable part of the squad, and a very useful player to have on the bench in any game, but if he's part of the starting line up when March 19th comes around, that'll be a sad indictment of our squad's depth.

The new possession based 4-3-3 system worked ok here and there, very much still a work in progress, and the defenders often had problems working the ball through to the midfielders, especially when Houston started pressuring more after the first few minutes.  Obviously having three players upfront means fewer players back close to the defenders so they're really going to have to work on movement, tracking back and making themselves available for the pass if the defence is going to be able to avoid losing the ball or just hoofing it long.  Julian de Guzman's return should really help with that, he's going to be crucial to TFC's chances this year.

When it worked though, it worked really well, TFC's first goal came after a long period of possession, patiently moving the ball from one side to the other before Nick Labrocca played a longer ball through to Jacob Peterson who had made a sudden incisive run and was then able to round the goalie and score.

The second goal came from a penalty after triallist Jamal Gay was pulled down inside/on the edge of the box while running onto a great through ball from Javier Martina.  While the tricks that were shown in highlights from Turkey suggested Martina certainly has talent, his play to set up that penalty gives me much more hope that he can be an effective player.  I'll take the composure and vision he showed to hold on to the ball, drift inside then play a simple but lethal defence splitting pass, over any number of fancy dribbles.

Jamal Gay looked alright as the main striker up front, but most of the other triallists or draft picks didn't really show much and were outshone by academy players Matt Stinson and Oscar Cordone who both looked impressive in the second half.

Losing on Thursday meant the second game was against Orlando City on Saturday night, and it was another struggle, ending in a 1-0 defeat and an ignomious 4th place finish.  Orlando had definitely learnt from Houston and were very aggressive in pressuring TFC's defenders as they tried to get the ball forward.  It worked very well for them, as all game TFC struggled to get anything going, and the result was well deserved, with the goal coming from some more crapppy defending, Orlando player/coach Ian Fuller managing to fight off 3 defenders and round Milos Kocic.

Oh well, TFC move on and hopefully things will get better with a bit more time to get used to the system and new players.  There's signs of promise, you can tell that what they're trying to do will look good if it all comes together, so it's time to move on and wait for more evidence next week in Charleston.

What's that whistling noise?  Why, it's Axl Rose.

Marvell Wynne, Marvell Wynne, flying down the wing.

The unavoidable juggernaut that is the MLS Cup hype machine is again turning the focus of the world's media to Marvell Wynne, with this publicity stunt set for Friday, based around lighting up the CN Tower.  So I figured I'd join in by reliving some of his best moments with TFC, at least the ones available on youtube.

I'll start with his first goal for TFC, from September 2008 against Houston. Go to 1:51 to see the goal, a great dribble, cutting in from the right wing, owning Dwayne De Rosario in the process, and then a great shot into the far corner. This video also features Hunter Freeman's comedy own goal, starting at 1:15, if you want to take that in again.


This is probably my favourite Marvell moment, his assist on Danny Dichio's goal against Colorado, featuring a nutmeg, a well sold dummy, and a good low cross for Dichio.  And why not get nostalgic for 2007 by watching the whole thing, top ten goals of 2007.



He seemed to like playing against his current club, getting another assist here with yet another run down the wing and cross, this time for De Rosario, at 0:34 of this video.  Also at about 2:45, you see the rarity of an O'Brian White goal, a really nice finish as well.


This is his other TFC goal, and it's another spectacular one, against Dallas in 2008, using his speed to get behind the defence, running on to a through ball, and chipping the goalie from about 30 yards out, at 2:50.  Keep watching to see John Carver have a bit of a meltdown at the end.


Thanks for the memories Marvell, keep your hands down on Sunday.

You win some, you lose some.

Stoppage time, injury time, Esquire added time! fergie time, call it what you will, but it definitely made things interesting for me on Saturday.  First up we had Darlington, away to the second bottom team in the division, who were coming off a 4-0 loss the week before.  2-0 up after 90minutes and looking very comfortable, still 2-0 up after 94 minutes, cue the collapse and we come away with a 2-2 draw.  They're certainly coming up with creative new ways to frustrate the crap out of you.

Later in the evening, and Toronto FC are in their latest win or bust game, trying to keep their desperate playoff hopes alive.  After a shambolic first half, they improved in the second, but just like it was back in the first few games of the season, they'd relied on a bit of magic from Dwayne De Rosario to draw them, level, but time was running out and 1 point really wasn't going to be good enough.  I was out with friends so wasn't watching the game, but got commentary of the last few minutes over the phone (thanks Roz!).  O'Brien White missing another good chance seemed to be the end of our chances, but then De Ro got the ball and attacked and got fouled just on the edge of the area.  Playing against his former team, and having scored one free kick goal already, surely he couldn't do it again could he?  But he did, and we won.  Realistically the playoffs aren't going to happen but it extends hope for a little bit longer, selfishly, that means long enough for at least the game in Seattle I'll be attending.  Taking the game on it's own though, an awesome moment, one that really ratcheted up my karaoke enthusiasm for the rest of the night.

Stepping outside of the moment, and though it would be unfair to make any kind of snap judgement about the post Preki regime, the goal just hid the fact that we look like a team that's just starting over, which of course is unfortunately what we are.

A 4-1 thrashing followed by a bad game against a theoretically inferior team, only to be rescued by De Ro heroics.  It's like we're back in April.  We're a team that frankly isn't good enough and is going to rely on individual inspiration, and it doesn't surprise me that De Ro thrives in that sort of situation, and if we're going to do anything this season, he's going to have to go on an amazing streak.  Hopefully next season, whether under Dasovic, or a new coach, we'll be able to move beyond the need for such heroics on a regular basis, much as we did for a couple of months this year before injuries exposed the depth limitations.  Hopefully that new coach won't be fired in a panic as soon as things go wrong, I've had enough starting over.