TFC killed the possession stat.

After watching the TFC/Whitecaps game live at Shoeless Joes, I finally got the chance to rewatch the game, which I wanted to do to be able to check out how TSN was going to handle their MLS coverage (not bad I suppose, but nothing groundbreakingly new or thorough), as well as look at the game in a bit more detail.  I was a bit shellshocked by the defensive shambles, so thought I might not have given enough credit for the things that TFC had done well in my initial post game report.

So, how did they look, well I think the barrage of defensive breakdowns and Vancouver chances towards the end of the first half did blind me to how well TFC played going forward in the first half hour or so.  The Reds had a lot of possession, as they did throughout the game, but in that first part of the game it seemed a lot more effective, focussed and played in Vancouver's third of the field.  There was a lot of crisp short passing, as well as longer balls to switch the ball from one side to another, as they were able to get the ball into dangerous positions often.  The obvious problem with that style of play though is that you need real quality through the whole team.  The more patient and deliberate the build up play and the more passes involved, the more opportunities there are for the move to break down, whether through a misplaced pass or a good defensive play, especially the further up the pitch you get, and so it proved for TFC as though promising at times, and often quite pretty, it rarely worked out. 

It did work very nicely in a more direct but still controlled way for the first goal which came after a Vancouver attack, the ball moving in 4 passes from Stefan Frei to Maicon Santos, who had dropped deep, dragging Jay DeMerit out of position with him, leaving a hole in the middle for Dwayne De Rosario to run through to latch on to Santos' longer pass over the top.

Vancouver's first half goals were also from more direct plays, both resulting from long kicks by Jay Nolly and Eric Hassli outjumping Adrian Cann to win possession.  Whether Cann was instructed to be jumping for those balls despite being named left back, or whether he took it into his own hands to do that, who knows, but surely that's the Centre Back's job, and both times Cann was then out of position and the Whitecaps were able to attack down their right wing and the goals came from that.  Whether from more traditional long ball play like that, or as was more often the case from well timed through balls from the likes of Davide Chiumiento, or longer balls played behind the defence for their forwards to run on to, Vancouver's more direct style very easily exposed TFC's defensive limitations. 

The decision to play Cann at Left Back is still a very curious one and has yet to be fully explained as Aron Winter sidestepped questions about that in his post game press scrum.  Before the game, it would be obvious that the big tough Centre Back best equipped to handle a strong forward like Hassli was Cann, and whether as part of TFC's plan or not, he played that role throughout the game.  As noted above Cann was jumping with Hassli to try and win long balls pumped forward, though more than likely that wasn't planned, but was instead due to Hassli smartly drifting out to that side of the pitch just for that purpose, to draw him out of position and create space for his right midfielders.  However you'd hope TFC had worked on their plan to defend corners, and at all of Vancouver's 12 corners, it was Cann battling with Hassli, if you're going to ask him to do all the Centre Back stuff, why have him at Left back?  Absolutely baffling, and a major reason why we looked so hopeless at the back.

In the second half, as well as the defensive comedy continuing, Toronto's forward momentum really didn't continue, the patient passing, slow build up game generated nothing in the way of chances, and most of their longer spells of possession were limited to the back line passing amongst themselves.  This was exemplified best in the 78th minute, when, already down 4-2 and with a throw in about 10 yards into the Vancouver half the ball was thrown backwards, and then kept for just under a minute, a move involving 15 passes without the ball ever crossing the half way line, with Frei receiving the ball 4 times, before on the 5th occasion he just hoofed the ball long anyway.

More direct moves did again provide some chances though, and Santos' goal came from a counter attacking quick move forward, the ball going from Frei to Santos at the top of the box in 4 passes and 14 seconds, all well controlled and along the ground, and the speed involved helped Santos take advantage of bad marking and organisation, he had a lot of time and space to turn and get a shot off.

After Seattle's opening day loss to LA, Sounders coach Sigi Schmid said in an article in the Seattle Times "Our league is a league where the team that usually has more possession loses because it's a counter-attacking league. That's the way they are set-up to play."  He was talking about the Galaxy, but both Vancouver and Toronto also proved that point on Saturday. 

Toronto actually had 66% of the possession, a shade under two thirds, but aside from that first 30 minutes or so, never looked like doing anything with it, as of right now they don't have the skill to be able to break down on a consistent basis a defence that has had time to organise itself.  Obviously Toronto will continue with this style of play, and quite right too as it's far too early to be dismissing the experiment, but if they don't dramatically improve and develop the cutting edge needed to convert possession into solid chances, then the 2011 version of TFC may be on their way to being the best argument ever for the redundancy of the possession % statistic.

So where do TFC go from here?  Well the big problems were in defence and surely Winter recognises that Cann has to move back to the middle, especially with Portland's Kenny Cooper coming to town this weekend.  That will allow a player more suited to left back, such as Mikael Yourassowsky or Ashtone Morgan to play there, which would help with both the defence and attack.  Demetrious Omphroy could well be worth a try at Right Back as well, in pre-season he looked good going forward and showed a good ability to put crosses in from out wide.  There may be issues on the defensive side of things, but it's not as if Dan Gargan was particularly impressive there anyway.  Having two more mobile fullbacks, as well as Julian De Guzman eventually replacing Nathan Sturgis who didn't look good, will definitely help.  Possession's all very nice, but you have to be able to move the ball quickly and directly when the opportuntity presents itself to be effective, and TFC on Saturday and throughout pre-season, haven't looked good enough to be able to do that on any kind of consistently dangerous basis.

In midfield and up front, there's not really that many options for change, though Gianluca Zavarise looked good when he came on in the second half, so could well get a start, probably instead of the unimpressive Nick Soolsma, either as a direct swap, or with Zavarise in midfield pushing Jacob Peterson into Soolsma's spot.  Bringing in Alan Gordon to be a more physical spearhead up front is another option, though Santos and De Rosario worked very well together, so I wouldn't recommend changing that.

As Dan Gargan said post game, "we've got 33 games left but it's going to be a process".  All we know for sure is that TFC have blown their chance to break the 100 point barrier, there's a lot of time left this season, which is a good thing as despite the early signs of hope, Toronto has a long way to go to be able to effectively control the game and create chances through patient passing.  However, if TFC's increased passing skills can translate into a more effective counter attack, along with improved defensive organisation which is obviously the main priority, then we may be able to remain competitive this season until that happens.  Straw grasping?  Maybe, but I'll take any hope I can get right now.

Whitecaps 4-2 TFC. Not a good start.

One game into the season is way too early to be jumping to any conclusions, but what the hell, I'm going to do it anyway, and there were two main things I'll confidently predict going from today's game.

1- The Vancouver Whitecaps won't look that good again all season.
2- Toronto FC won't look that bad again all season.

Expansion teams are supposed to be poor, naive, learning harsh lessons while waiting for the deficiencies in their roster to be upgraded over their first season or two.  Think TFC, back when they were an expansion team in name as well as in spirit.  Think Portland Timbers, 3-0 down within 30 minutes against Colorado in their season opener on Saturday.

But no, in their first ever MLS game, Vancouver looked comfortable at the back despite letting in two goals, and positively lethal going forward, scoring 4 and creating many other chances.  Some of that is due to the good decisions they've made in building a team, for example Jay De Merit is a better defender than TFC have ever had in their 4 and a bit years so far, and on the evidence of this game, striker Eric Hassli certainly looks a better striker than TFC has ever had as well as a better designated player than TFC has ever had.

Mainly though it was due to how poorly TFC played, and the sorry state of their roster going in to the first game of the season.  Most of the kids were left on the bench to start the game as Aron Winter went with the most experienced lineup available to him right now.  Unfortunately that still meant a lot of weak options, and the problem was compounded by some strange positional decisions.

First of all, was playing Adrian Cann at left Back and Ty Harden at Centre back.  I think three things that even the most casual TFC observer would agree on is that Adrian Cann isn't a left back, that Cann is better than Harden at centre back, and that Cann and Nana Attakora as our centre back partnership was one of the few things that was a success last season.  In the last pre-season game it seemed that Winter was making a point, that Cann couldn't expect to just walk back into the side at his preferred position.  Fair enough, if a bit on the petty side, messages need to be sent every now and then, but he's going to keep that going in the regular season? When it actually counts?  Cann looked very out of place at Left Back, as shown in Vancouver's first goal and Harden was just plain terrible, so hopefully that's the end of that particular lesson.  Dan Gargan and Attakora didn't look great in defence either, and neither did Nathan Sturgis who was thoroughly outclassed by David Chiumiento, and allowed Terry Dunfield to run by him easily for the Whitecaps second goal.  Jacob Peterson was ineffective in midfield, as was Nick Soolsma further up the field on the wing in Peterson's more natural position. 

On the positive side of things, as there was in pre-season, there were occasional moments when things came together well and you could see the promise of what we're trying to do.  In the first ten minutes or so before Vancouver scored, TFC looked good, very positively taking the game to the Whitecaps.  Maicon Santos played a good ball through to set up Dwayne De Rosario's goal, and then scored a great goal out of nothing to bring it back to 4-2.  Javier Martina had an ok game as well, causing quite a few problems on the left wing, and Gianluca Zavarise looked useful after coming on in the second half. 

As for De Ro?  Well it was a typical De Ro day really, even though it wasn't a great all round game from him, he scored TFC's first with a clinical finish, and until TFC's squad improves and the team becomes more comfortable and effective playing Winter's system, we're going to be relying on him a lot to create and score chances.  Unfortunately his propensity to shoot himself in the foot on the pr side of things also surfaced with this tweet

@dwaynederosario 8,000th goal in MLS HISTORY! Thanks to all the players/staff and fans for helping me achieve that goal...

    Yep, that's right De Ro, captain, never mind that we lost, it's all about you.

Anyway, as I said at the start of this, it's way too soon to be jumping to conclusions, and the team is very much still a work in progress.  Of course it would be nice if we weren't once again going into the season putting the squad together as we go, but unfortunately that's the reality right now due to the amount of time that was taken before bringing Winter on board.   Hopefully the patience and time taken in the job search will prove worth it and this is the start of a long streak of stability and continuity meaning this is the last time we have to go into a season this unprepared. 

While everyone at TFC has been preaching patience and stressing the long term, for the long sufffering supporters, it'd also be nice if we could at least be competitive this year.  On Saturday, we really weren't, but I'm confident that things will improve.  New signings are surely on the way, and even if that doesn't happen any time soon, the current players we have will get better with further exposure to Winter's new style of play, Winter will learn which players he can rely on and where their best positions are, and hopefully some of the draft picks and academy graduates can stake a claim for a place in the starting eleven.  It would be great if, just for once we could have those issues sorted out during pre-season, but alas that didn't happen again this year.  Oh well, long term, 2012 and beyond, I'm confident we'll look good.  This season? Well things can only get better from here.

Pre game: Toronto FC at Vancouver Whitecaps. We're going to lose aren't we?

So here we are finally, at the end of camp, new faces have come and gone, big cheques have been offered and then ripped up, baby has been put in the corner (no, wait, nevermind, that's just wee Joao Plata, bless him) and there was just time for one more dramatic performance from the star of the show.  They had the time of their lives, but now it's back to real life with the start of the new season.  2011 MLS First Kick is finally upon TFC.

A flurry of activity in the last week or so means Toronto can actually field a full starting eleven and substitution bench, and it's nice to be finally able to say that.  After the signing of Gianluca Zavarise, the return of Adrian Cann and the trade for Alan Gordon, the new additions were all young, draft pick Demetrious Omphroy, and academy graduates Ashtone Morgan, Oscar Cordon, Matt Stinson and Keith Makubuya bringing the average age of TFC's squad down to an alarmingly low level, and generally increasing the "pre-season 2012" feel of things.

(edit: Late Friday, Belgian defender Mikael Yourassowsky and draft pick Matt Gold were also officially signed up as well.)

So it is that TFC's rebuilding project, hoping for good things but really preparing for 2012 and beyond arrives in Vancouver for the game this saturday.  How are the Whitecaps, actually an expansion team, looking?  Well, ok I suppose.  To me, a not always paying attention observer from Toronto, Vancouver seem like the anti-TFC.  They've been running along competently for a long time as a USL team, and since confirming their ascension to MLS, they've methodically and dull-ly gone about building a strong behind the scenes team, with a wealth of football knowledge.  No drama or rash decisions here, they kept Bob Lenarduzzi in the picture, kept Teitur Thordarsen as coach, rewarding him for a job well done at USL level and maintaining a sense of continuity the like of which TFC haven't been able to come close to even dreaming about yet.

They then built a team in a similar fashion, steadily adding pieces, some from their USL team, some from the expansion draft, and also adding players from overseas such as USMNT defender and new captain Jay De Merit.  They topped it off with a bunch of late signings of draft picks or homegrown players.  Even their DP signing was on the dull side, striker Eric Hassli, probably a good signing, but with no marketing pizzazz at all.

Though they've definitely had their issues with ticketing and supporter relations, the important on the pitch stuff has been, if unspectacular, competent and professionally put together.  That's as good a description of any as the team itself, they look like they'll be solid at the back, but could have worries with scoring goals, Thordarson is a decent coach who'll have them well organised, but they're unlikely to be all that adventurous.  Expect a lot of 0-0 games for them this year, they'll be a bit on the boring side, but probably they'll be getting results and success, if not this year, then probably quite quickly, as I said, the anti TFC whose reactionary incompetence over their first 4 years was entertaining and distressing in equal measures.  I'd like to think it's a bright new era for TFC, with new attitudes and winning mentalities, but this off season has shown we've still got a long way to go in that regard.

So what does it all mean for this game?  Well what probably seemed like a good idea at the time, a big Canadian match-up, combined with a winnable game against an expansion team, could well become, if not their worst nightmare, a very bad dream for TFC.  For a supporter base soured by the first 4 years but very ready to give Aron Winter a chance, looking forward to some more attractive football, and still tentatively hoping for good things despite an unimpressive pre-season, losing to an expansion team, a Canadian expansion team at that, in their first ever MLS game would not be a good way to kick things off, but that's more than likely what will happen.

While there's a few obvious and definite starters, Stefan Frei, Adrian Cann, Nana Attakora, Dwayne De Rosario and Maicon Santos, the rest of the team should be very interesting.  Up front, Alan Gordon only met up with the team in Vancouver, so probably won't be thrown into action right away, so we're more than likely looking at Santos with Jacob Peterson and Javier Martina out wide.  In midfield and at the full back positions, well it depends on just how pragmatic Winter wants to be, how much he wants to chase points in this particular game.  Does he go with experienced MLS players like Dan Gargan, Ty Harden or Nathan Sturgis, or does he go with the chance to let some youngsters get valuable experience and play Omphroy, Morgan, Stinson or Cordon.

It'll probably be a bit of both, but either way, I don't really see it working well for Toronto.  Vancouver will be able to sit back, keep their defensive shape and organisation and watch TFC pass it around and hope to hit them on the break, and if TFC's pre-season is anything to go by, more than likely that strategy will work well.  With home field advantage, and taking advantage of the emotion of their first MLS game and all that, Vancouver will do well, and as well as stifling TFC, will probably create plenty of chances.  TFC will be reliant on Frei keeping the Whitecaps out and De Ro creating something out of nothing to be able to get something out of the game.  I'd love to say otherwise, but I'll predict a 1-0 win for Vancouver.

MLS 2011 Western Conference Preview.

Well here we are again, the new season kicking off, anticipation rising with supporters dreaming of success, however that may be defined, whether it's trophies, playoffs, respectably competing, or just seeing the odd glimpse here and there of some potential future success.  It's a clean slate, everyone's excited, hell even David Beckham's deigned to be here for the start of the season this time.

Obviously that means it's preview time in the media, so here I go.  I haven't done much research for this, to be honest I've done no research, I'm just going by my impressions from last season, and whatever news was big enough for me to notice and remember over the last few months, I'm not going to look anything up while writing this, I'm just going with a gut feeling, Tom Anselmi style, that always works right?  So here we go, my First Annual Half-Arsed And Proud Of It MLS Season Predictions.  The FAHAAPOIMLSSPs.  Catchy.  Due to First Kick involving two western teams, I'll start with the West.

1 Real Salt Lake.  A really good team who should keep going.  Due to Champions league play, they'll be more ready than most teams to start the season, so should get good results early, and from there on in, they can coast on the home advantage they get at Rio Tinto stadium.  Fatigue from extra cup games will cost them towards the end of the season, they'll win the West, and the Supporters Shield, but will lose in the conference final.

2 Seattle Sounders.  A very successful start as an expansion club, with two US Opens and good regular season success maintaining that momentum, and this year they'll make it really count.  Blaise Nkufo should do really well, and they'll somehow even manage to make O'Brian White look like a decent player again.  MLS Cup champs.

3 LA Galaxy.  Another successful regular season, with Donovan and Beckham playing well and Juan Pablo Angel adequately replacing Edson Buddle, the real interest lies in seeing if the notoriously sweaty Chad barrett manages to avoid completely evaporating over the course of a long hot LA season.   It will hilariously end with a first round playoff defeat, Seattle gaining their revenge for last year.

4 Colorado Rapids.  The 2010 MLS cup champs should be strong again, with new signing Nyassi from Seattle combining with Kandji if and when he's fit to take some of the scoring pressure off Casey and Cummings.  Basically though it's all going to come down to those two, and they'll do alright, securing the top wild card seed and once again representing the East in the final, where they'll lose.

5 FC Dallas.  Bloody hell, there's a lot of good teams in the West.  Last year's losing finallists will do ok, mainly on the back of another good season from David Ferreira.  Due to being in the West, they'll only secure a wild card spot, and will lose at that stage.

6 Portland Timbers.  As an expansion side, they'll be closer to Seattle than Toronto, and Kenny Cooper will pick up where he left off with Dallas and score plenty of goals.  They'll beat Dallas in the wild card game, then lose to RSL.

7. San Jose Earthquakes.  Wondolowski won't score half as many goals as he did last year, and they'll muddle along at the edge of the wild card spots all season before falling short.

8 Chivas USA.  A new coach, some new players, Nick Labrocca.  They'll be better than last year, but still not good enough.

9 Vancouver Whitecaps.  More out of spite than anything.  In a way, they're the anti TFC, what seems to be blandly professional behind the scenes, with continutiy in the coaching ranks, and slowly putting together what might eventually be a decent team, and no sign that they'll make a lot of panic moves if it doesn't start out right.  The team generally reflects that, they'll be ok, tough to beat, but unexciting, hopefully their DP Hassli can score them some goals.

So there you have it, by far the stronger conference, 3 of the 4 wild card spots will go to Western teams, as will the Supporter's shield, both MLS Cup final spots and the MLS Cup winners.

Coming sometime in the next couple of days, the mediocrity that will be the Eastern Conference.