Monday, March 21, 2011

TFC killed the possession stat.

After watching the TFC/Whitecaps game live at Shoeless Joes, I finally got the chance to rewatch the game, which I wanted to do to be able to check out how TSN was going to handle their MLS coverage (not bad I suppose, but nothing groundbreakingly new or thorough), as well as look at the game in a bit more detail.  I was a bit shellshocked by the defensive shambles, so thought I might not have given enough credit for the things that TFC had done well in my initial post game report.

So, how did they look, well I think the barrage of defensive breakdowns and Vancouver chances towards the end of the first half did blind me to how well TFC played going forward in the first half hour or so.  The Reds had a lot of possession, as they did throughout the game, but in that first part of the game it seemed a lot more effective, focussed and played in Vancouver's third of the field.  There was a lot of crisp short passing, as well as longer balls to switch the ball from one side to another, as they were able to get the ball into dangerous positions often.  The obvious problem with that style of play though is that you need real quality through the whole team.  The more patient and deliberate the build up play and the more passes involved, the more opportunities there are for the move to break down, whether through a misplaced pass or a good defensive play, especially the further up the pitch you get, and so it proved for TFC as though promising at times, and often quite pretty, it rarely worked out. 

It did work very nicely in a more direct but still controlled way for the first goal which came after a Vancouver attack, the ball moving in 4 passes from Stefan Frei to Maicon Santos, who had dropped deep, dragging Jay DeMerit out of position with him, leaving a hole in the middle for Dwayne De Rosario to run through to latch on to Santos' longer pass over the top.

Vancouver's first half goals were also from more direct plays, both resulting from long kicks by Jay Nolly and Eric Hassli outjumping Adrian Cann to win possession.  Whether Cann was instructed to be jumping for those balls despite being named left back, or whether he took it into his own hands to do that, who knows, but surely that's the Centre Back's job, and both times Cann was then out of position and the Whitecaps were able to attack down their right wing and the goals came from that.  Whether from more traditional long ball play like that, or as was more often the case from well timed through balls from the likes of Davide Chiumiento, or longer balls played behind the defence for their forwards to run on to, Vancouver's more direct style very easily exposed TFC's defensive limitations. 

The decision to play Cann at Left Back is still a very curious one and has yet to be fully explained as Aron Winter sidestepped questions about that in his post game press scrum.  Before the game, it would be obvious that the big tough Centre Back best equipped to handle a strong forward like Hassli was Cann, and whether as part of TFC's plan or not, he played that role throughout the game.  As noted above Cann was jumping with Hassli to try and win long balls pumped forward, though more than likely that wasn't planned, but was instead due to Hassli smartly drifting out to that side of the pitch just for that purpose, to draw him out of position and create space for his right midfielders.  However you'd hope TFC had worked on their plan to defend corners, and at all of Vancouver's 12 corners, it was Cann battling with Hassli, if you're going to ask him to do all the Centre Back stuff, why have him at Left back?  Absolutely baffling, and a major reason why we looked so hopeless at the back.

In the second half, as well as the defensive comedy continuing, Toronto's forward momentum really didn't continue, the patient passing, slow build up game generated nothing in the way of chances, and most of their longer spells of possession were limited to the back line passing amongst themselves.  This was exemplified best in the 78th minute, when, already down 4-2 and with a throw in about 10 yards into the Vancouver half the ball was thrown backwards, and then kept for just under a minute, a move involving 15 passes without the ball ever crossing the half way line, with Frei receiving the ball 4 times, before on the 5th occasion he just hoofed the ball long anyway.

More direct moves did again provide some chances though, and Santos' goal came from a counter attacking quick move forward, the ball going from Frei to Santos at the top of the box in 4 passes and 14 seconds, all well controlled and along the ground, and the speed involved helped Santos take advantage of bad marking and organisation, he had a lot of time and space to turn and get a shot off.

After Seattle's opening day loss to LA, Sounders coach Sigi Schmid said in an article in the Seattle Times "Our league is a league where the team that usually has more possession loses because it's a counter-attacking league. That's the way they are set-up to play."  He was talking about the Galaxy, but both Vancouver and Toronto also proved that point on Saturday. 

Toronto actually had 66% of the possession, a shade under two thirds, but aside from that first 30 minutes or so, never looked like doing anything with it, as of right now they don't have the skill to be able to break down on a consistent basis a defence that has had time to organise itself.  Obviously Toronto will continue with this style of play, and quite right too as it's far too early to be dismissing the experiment, but if they don't dramatically improve and develop the cutting edge needed to convert possession into solid chances, then the 2011 version of TFC may be on their way to being the best argument ever for the redundancy of the possession % statistic.

So where do TFC go from here?  Well the big problems were in defence and surely Winter recognises that Cann has to move back to the middle, especially with Portland's Kenny Cooper coming to town this weekend.  That will allow a player more suited to left back, such as Mikael Yourassowsky or Ashtone Morgan to play there, which would help with both the defence and attack.  Demetrious Omphroy could well be worth a try at Right Back as well, in pre-season he looked good going forward and showed a good ability to put crosses in from out wide.  There may be issues on the defensive side of things, but it's not as if Dan Gargan was particularly impressive there anyway.  Having two more mobile fullbacks, as well as Julian De Guzman eventually replacing Nathan Sturgis who didn't look good, will definitely help.  Possession's all very nice, but you have to be able to move the ball quickly and directly when the opportuntity presents itself to be effective, and TFC on Saturday and throughout pre-season, haven't looked good enough to be able to do that on any kind of consistently dangerous basis.

In midfield and up front, there's not really that many options for change, though Gianluca Zavarise looked good when he came on in the second half, so could well get a start, probably instead of the unimpressive Nick Soolsma, either as a direct swap, or with Zavarise in midfield pushing Jacob Peterson into Soolsma's spot.  Bringing in Alan Gordon to be a more physical spearhead up front is another option, though Santos and De Rosario worked very well together, so I wouldn't recommend changing that.

As Dan Gargan said post game, "we've got 33 games left but it's going to be a process".  All we know for sure is that TFC have blown their chance to break the 100 point barrier, there's a lot of time left this season, which is a good thing as despite the early signs of hope, Toronto has a long way to go to be able to effectively control the game and create chances through patient passing.  However, if TFC's increased passing skills can translate into a more effective counter attack, along with improved defensive organisation which is obviously the main priority, then we may be able to remain competitive this season until that happens.  Straw grasping?  Maybe, but I'll take any hope I can get right now.

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